With the start of a new year, it's time to see how far off my predictions for last year were and make some new ones for 2012.
2011 High Confidence Predictions
1) Gas prices will reach $4.09/gal for regular unleaded (87 Octane) on the Missouri side of the St. Louis area at this year.
Due to employment issues leading me away from the St. Louis metro for much of the year, I cannot accurately judge any gas price results for the past year. However, looking over data from gasbuddy.com, it the Missouri side did reach $4.09/gal for 87 Octane in early May, so I will assume this one is correct.
2) A new multiple year transportation funding bill will not be passed in the U.S. Congress this year.
Correct.
3) Left turn on red from a one-way street to another one-way street will remain illegal in Missouri.
Correct as far as I known.
4) No major movement on the Gateway Connector in Illinois. There may be some properties in the corridor being acquired, but the EIS process will not be started, nor will the project be completely dropped.
Correct.
5) Illinois will not raise its speed limits on interstates to 70 miles per hour (this one is actually between medium and high confidence given the surprising attempt last year).
Correct.
6) Major opposition will emerge to the South County Connector project.
Although there is opposition out there to the South County Connector, it is not to the degree of opposition that the I-170 extension saw in 1997 nor as much as the Page Avenue Extension saw. So I will go with incorrect.
High confident predictions correct over total: 5/6.
2011 Medium Confidence Predictions
1) Gas prices will reach $4.59/gal for regular unleaded on the Missouri side of the St. Louis area once this year.
Given the data on gasbuddy.com, this one is incorrect.
2) Gas prices will stay above $4.00/gallon for regular unleaded for one month this year.
Given the data on gasbuddy.com, this one is incorrect.
3) Red light and speed cameras will remain legal in Missouri (another one that would be in the high confidence group but I'm unsure how the Missouri legislature will act on it).
Correct.
4) The new I-70 bridge across the Mississippi River will hit a snag that will either lead to costs increasing by at least $15 million or delay the project by at least six months. It may not necessarily be with the bridge, it could be with one of the contracts for the approaches, the Missouri Interchange, or the connections at the Tri-Level interchange in Illinois.
May be correct given the lawsuit over minority hiring filed near the end of the year, but I'm going with incorrect since the exact cost was not known as of the start of 2012.
5) There will still be no word on which Metrolink expansion will be pursued next.
Correct.
6) The Arch Grounds Redevelopment will proceed in the same method as planning for the I-70 Mississippi River Bridge: An expensive plan developed, available funding to achieve the plan will not be found, and the plan will be largely scaled back.
Half correct; the plans have been scaled back, and will be scaled back some more. However, I did not see the TIGER grant money coming for the project.
7) Major delays will occur on the Poplar Street Bridge due to more maintenance work.
I think this one was correct; there was some maintenance work, but I'm not sure about the delays.
8) The St. Louis area will have one too many red air quality days this year, and draw greater interest from the EPA.
I cannot find anything confirming this right now online, so I'm going with incorrect.
9) The South County Connector will be shelved, with St. Louis County turning its attention to the Northwest Parkway or the River Valley Connector (or whatever the Chesterfield Valley to Maryland Heights route is being called now).
Incorrect; the South County Connector study is still proceeding, with not a peep about the River Valley Connector, and the study only starting on the Northwest Parkway.
10) Definite, just awaiting funding plans will be well underway for the US 61 bypass of Hannibal, Missouri.
Incorrect; the Hannibal Bypass seems to be completely stalled, if not dead.
Total medium confidence predictions correct/total medium confidence predictions:
3.5/10
2011 Low Confidence Predictions
1) A government agency in St. Charles County will provide funding to assist MoDOT with adding one or more interchanges to the US 61/Avenue of the Saints Corridor.
Incorrect; Phase 3 of the Page Avenue Extensions saw more activity this year than the US 61/Avenue of the Saints Corridor.
2) Plans for a new shopping center near the I-55 interchange will be announced in the latter half of the year, with serious work (not necessarily construction, but maybe planning and public meetings) for completing the interchange at I-55 and Weber Road.
Incorrect.
3) Another Displaced Left Turn (like the MO 30 at Summit Road/Gravois Bluffs Boulevard intersection) or Median U-turn Intersection will be seriously considered somewhere on the Missouri side of the metro area.
Incorrect.
4) A traffic calming project on a road in St. Louis City will trigger a large enough backlash that it is reversed (this includes anything from a four lane road being restriped to two lanes plus a center turn lane to a sidewalk extension at an intersection.
Not sure about the backlash, but I'm going with correct on this one since Vandeventer was returned to four lanes between I-44 and Kingshighway.
5) MoDOT will finally turn over Routes JJ and AB in St. Louis County to other agencies.
Incorrect.
6) A project will start on I-70 in Missouri that will include evidence for the future truck only lanes.
Incorrect. The latest information regarding MoDOT wanting a PPP for rebuilding I-70 across the state has it up to the winning company (should MoDOT get the necessary legislative approval) whether to proceed with the truck only lanes or a six lane design.
Total low confidence predictions correct/total low confidence predictions: 1/6
Monday, January 2, 2012
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