With the start of a new year, it's time to see how far off my predictions for last year were and make some new ones for 2012.
2011 High Confidence Predictions
1) Gas prices will reach $4.09/gal for regular unleaded (87 Octane) on the Missouri side of the St. Louis area at this year.
Due to employment issues leading me away from the St. Louis metro for much of the year, I cannot accurately judge any gas price results for the past year. However, looking over data from gasbuddy.com, it the Missouri side did reach $4.09/gal for 87 Octane in early May, so I will assume this one is correct.
2) A new multiple year transportation funding bill will not be passed in the U.S. Congress this year.
Correct.
3) Left turn on red from a one-way street to another one-way street will remain illegal in Missouri.
Correct as far as I known.
4) No major movement on the Gateway Connector in Illinois. There may be some properties in the corridor being acquired, but the EIS process will not be started, nor will the project be completely dropped.
Correct.
5) Illinois will not raise its speed limits on interstates to 70 miles per hour (this one is actually between medium and high confidence given the surprising attempt last year).
Correct.
6) Major opposition will emerge to the South County Connector project.
Although there is opposition out there to the South County Connector, it is not to the degree of opposition that the I-170 extension saw in 1997 nor as much as the Page Avenue Extension saw. So I will go with incorrect.
High confident predictions correct over total: 5/6.
2011 Medium Confidence Predictions
1) Gas prices will reach $4.59/gal for regular unleaded on the Missouri side of the St. Louis area once this year.
Given the data on gasbuddy.com, this one is incorrect.
2) Gas prices will stay above $4.00/gallon for regular unleaded for one month this year.
Given the data on gasbuddy.com, this one is incorrect.
3) Red light and speed cameras will remain legal in Missouri (another one that would be in the high confidence group but I'm unsure how the Missouri legislature will act on it).
Correct.
4) The new I-70 bridge across the Mississippi River will hit a snag that will either lead to costs increasing by at least $15 million or delay the project by at least six months. It may not necessarily be with the bridge, it could be with one of the contracts for the approaches, the Missouri Interchange, or the connections at the Tri-Level interchange in Illinois.
May be correct given the lawsuit over minority hiring filed near the end of the year, but I'm going with incorrect since the exact cost was not known as of the start of 2012.
5) There will still be no word on which Metrolink expansion will be pursued next.
Correct.
6) The Arch Grounds Redevelopment will proceed in the same method as planning for the I-70 Mississippi River Bridge: An expensive plan developed, available funding to achieve the plan will not be found, and the plan will be largely scaled back.
Half correct; the plans have been scaled back, and will be scaled back some more. However, I did not see the TIGER grant money coming for the project.
7) Major delays will occur on the Poplar Street Bridge due to more maintenance work.
I think this one was correct; there was some maintenance work, but I'm not sure about the delays.
8) The St. Louis area will have one too many red air quality days this year, and draw greater interest from the EPA.
I cannot find anything confirming this right now online, so I'm going with incorrect.
9) The South County Connector will be shelved, with St. Louis County turning its attention to the Northwest Parkway or the River Valley Connector (or whatever the Chesterfield Valley to Maryland Heights route is being called now).
Incorrect; the South County Connector study is still proceeding, with not a peep about the River Valley Connector, and the study only starting on the Northwest Parkway.
10) Definite, just awaiting funding plans will be well underway for the US 61 bypass of Hannibal, Missouri.
Incorrect; the Hannibal Bypass seems to be completely stalled, if not dead.
Total medium confidence predictions correct/total medium confidence predictions:
3.5/10
2011 Low Confidence Predictions
1) A government agency in St. Charles County will provide funding to assist MoDOT with adding one or more interchanges to the US 61/Avenue of the Saints Corridor.
Incorrect; Phase 3 of the Page Avenue Extensions saw more activity this year than the US 61/Avenue of the Saints Corridor.
2) Plans for a new shopping center near the I-55 interchange will be announced in the latter half of the year, with serious work (not necessarily construction, but maybe planning and public meetings) for completing the interchange at I-55 and Weber Road.
Incorrect.
3) Another Displaced Left Turn (like the MO 30 at Summit Road/Gravois Bluffs Boulevard intersection) or Median U-turn Intersection will be seriously considered somewhere on the Missouri side of the metro area.
Incorrect.
4) A traffic calming project on a road in St. Louis City will trigger a large enough backlash that it is reversed (this includes anything from a four lane road being restriped to two lanes plus a center turn lane to a sidewalk extension at an intersection.
Not sure about the backlash, but I'm going with correct on this one since Vandeventer was returned to four lanes between I-44 and Kingshighway.
5) MoDOT will finally turn over Routes JJ and AB in St. Louis County to other agencies.
Incorrect.
6) A project will start on I-70 in Missouri that will include evidence for the future truck only lanes.
Incorrect. The latest information regarding MoDOT wanting a PPP for rebuilding I-70 across the state has it up to the winning company (should MoDOT get the necessary legislative approval) whether to proceed with the truck only lanes or a six lane design.
Total low confidence predictions correct/total low confidence predictions: 1/6
Monday, January 2, 2012
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
The new I-70 river bridge: Not the best project that could be
The new Mississippi River bridge currently being built north of downtown St. Louis is supposed to relieve congestion on the PSB. However, for many reasons, it may have not been the best project that could have been pursued. Consider:
* Westbound I-70 traffic already has a non-stop alternative to the PSB via the MLK Bridge. Eastbound I-70 traffic only has to face one light before entering the MLK Bridge. Using the MLK Bridge for through movements to WB I-44 or SB I-55 requires a long trip through downtown to return to the interstate. EB I-44 or NB I-55 through movements have a slightly easier time accessing the MLK - except when special events close Memorial Drive - but it still requires a mile long drive through downtown. This route also includes a sometimes difficult right turn onto Convention Plaza to access the MLK Bridge.
* The I-55 PSB ramps seem to back up regularly outside of rush hour, while the I-70 ramps are almost always free flowing outside of rush hour, excluding ball games.
* Sure, MoDOT says they will fix the access issues if a companion bridge is built in the future. However, there is no guarantee that the companion bridge will ever be built. In addition, what happens should the PSB become unusable for a long period due to a barge collision, severe hazmat accident, or increasing maintenance issues?
Driving Distances
For traffic heading to I-70 or I-55 beyond Troy:
- 38.9 miles via the PSB
- 37.23 via the new bridge (initial build)
- 32.7 miles via the PSB
- 34.3 miles via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
- 35.4 miles via the PSB
- 45.1 miles via I-270
- 37.0 miles via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
For traffic heading to I-64 east of St. Louis, using the point where the I-255 ramps merge onto I-64 as the eastern end:
- 23.2 miles via the PSB
- 24.66 via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
- 21.9 miles via the PSB
- 23.36 miles via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
- 47.2 miles via I-70 and the PSB
- 58.5 miles via I-64, I-270 south, and I-255
- 56.3 miles via I-70, I-270 east, and I-255
- 52.7 miles via I-70, I-170, I-64 and the PSB
- 45.45 miles via I-70 and the new bridge
What Could Be Done
Since it is too late now to abort the project and instead look again at a new bridge south of the PSB, there are a couple of changes to the new bridge project that could make this project much more useful to all.
* Add a new WB I-70 exit and a new EB I-70 entrance between Memorial Drive and the new bridge. While not an ideal solution, this would at least make it easier to access the new bridge from the south without as much time sitting at stoplights. The best location would be at Cass Avenue, but new ramps here would require closing the existing EB exit/WB entrance to/from Broadway or using a more costly braided design.
* Replace the current entrance to WB I-70 south of St. Louis Avenue with a new WB exit. This would at least allow a somewhat indirect U-turn option that might aid in any closure of the PSB
* Simply add the ramps to the south. Supposedly adding those ramps now would be incompatible with a future companion span, but the current design is not entirely compatible with the companion either. The connection between EB I-70 and the first bridge will be unneeded and require modification and removal, so why not modify it in the initial build to allow a more useful product?
* Westbound I-70 traffic already has a non-stop alternative to the PSB via the MLK Bridge. Eastbound I-70 traffic only has to face one light before entering the MLK Bridge. Using the MLK Bridge for through movements to WB I-44 or SB I-55 requires a long trip through downtown to return to the interstate. EB I-44 or NB I-55 through movements have a slightly easier time accessing the MLK - except when special events close Memorial Drive - but it still requires a mile long drive through downtown. This route also includes a sometimes difficult right turn onto Convention Plaza to access the MLK Bridge.
* The I-55 PSB ramps seem to back up regularly outside of rush hour, while the I-70 ramps are almost always free flowing outside of rush hour, excluding ball games.
* Sure, MoDOT says they will fix the access issues if a companion bridge is built in the future. However, there is no guarantee that the companion bridge will ever be built. In addition, what happens should the PSB become unusable for a long period due to a barge collision, severe hazmat accident, or increasing maintenance issues?
Driving Distances
For traffic heading to I-70 or I-55 beyond Troy:
- From the I-70/I-270 interchange:
- 38.9 miles via the PSB
- 37.23 via the new bridge (initial build)
- From the I-55/I-270/I-255 interchange:
- 32.7 miles via the PSB
- 34.3 miles via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
- From the I-44/I-270 interchange:
- 35.4 miles via the PSB
- 45.1 miles via I-270
- 37.0 miles via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
For traffic heading to I-64 east of St. Louis, using the point where the I-255 ramps merge onto I-64 as the eastern end:
- From I-44 at I-270:
- 23.2 miles via the PSB
- 24.66 via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
- From I-55 at the I-255/I-270 interchange:
- 21.9 miles via the PSB
- 23.36 miles via the new bridge had access been provided in the initial phase
- From the I-70/I-64/US 61 interchange at Wentzville:
- 47.2 miles via I-70 and the PSB
- 58.5 miles via I-64, I-270 south, and I-255
- 56.3 miles via I-70, I-270 east, and I-255
- 52.7 miles via I-70, I-170, I-64 and the PSB
- 45.45 miles via I-70 and the new bridge
What Could Be Done
Since it is too late now to abort the project and instead look again at a new bridge south of the PSB, there are a couple of changes to the new bridge project that could make this project much more useful to all.
* Add a new WB I-70 exit and a new EB I-70 entrance between Memorial Drive and the new bridge. While not an ideal solution, this would at least make it easier to access the new bridge from the south without as much time sitting at stoplights. The best location would be at Cass Avenue, but new ramps here would require closing the existing EB exit/WB entrance to/from Broadway or using a more costly braided design.
* Replace the current entrance to WB I-70 south of St. Louis Avenue with a new WB exit. This would at least allow a somewhat indirect U-turn option that might aid in any closure of the PSB
* Simply add the ramps to the south. Supposedly adding those ramps now would be incompatible with a future companion span, but the current design is not entirely compatible with the companion either. The connection between EB I-70 and the first bridge will be unneeded and require modification and removal, so why not modify it in the initial build to allow a more useful product?
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Safety Improvements for the MO 30 expressway
MoDOT recently held a public meeting for safety improvements for the MO 30 expressway. Maps of the proposed improvements can be found here
The best improvements shown appear to be conversion of some of the current signalized T-intersections to continuous green T's. It would be nice to see a few of the signalized intersections replaced with interchanges, but MoDOT's funding challenges pretty much make those non-starters.
The best improvements shown appear to be conversion of some of the current signalized T-intersections to continuous green T's. It would be nice to see a few of the signalized intersections replaced with interchanges, but MoDOT's funding challenges pretty much make those non-starters.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
A Brief Look At Some Cancelled Freeways of St. Louis
While some might say St. Louis has a large freeway system, many cancellations have left the system incomplete. Here is a look at some of the routes that were not built, with a reference map here:
Link
MO 755/North-South Distributor
* Time of death: Early 1980's
* Important Contributions: Would have provided for the missing movements at the west end of the PSB, plus a bypass of the depressed section of I-70
* Estimated Lane Miles: 21.98 - Assuming eight lanes between I-44 and I-64 (two lanes from I-55 plus two lanes from I-44) and six lanes between I-64 and I-70)
* Downgraded Form: The Truman and currently unbuilt 22nd Street Parkways.
I-170 Southern Extension
* Time of death: Most recently in 1997, however had died a few times prior to that year.
* Important Contributions: Quick access from South County to Clayton, possible relief for many of the current cut through streets such as Elm Avenue in Webster Groves (though congestion on the extension could have been a problem)
* Estimated Lane Miles: 46.98 - Assuming six lanes on the 1997 railroad alternative, including the stub from I-55 to MO 267
* Downgraded Form: Likely the South County Connector/River Des Peres extension
Cole Expressway
* Time of Death - 1972 for the section from I-170 to MO 755; the section between MO 755 and I-70 seems to have died first, while the I-170 to I-270 section seems to have held on a little longer.
* Estimated Lane Miles: 56.36 if four lanes, 84.54 if six lanes
* Possible Revival: The section between Craig Road and US 67 may yet be upgraded from a signalized expressway to a freeway
Midtown or Kingshighway Freeway
* Time of Death - 1971 in the St. Louis Transportation Study by East-West Gateway
* Important Contributions - The I-70 to I-270 section would have provided easy access to MO 367 and Alton from the south
* Estimated Lane Miles: 66.2 if four lanes, 99.3 if six lanes
Illinois 3 Freeway (FAP 410)
(Only considering the PSB Complex to I-255 section here; the actual FAP 410 route was to merge with I-255 until the IL 3 interchange at Columbia, then head towards I-57 north of Marion)
* Time of Death - Seems to have been in the 1980's.
* Estimated Lane Miles: 24.96 if four lanes
US 460/IL 15 Freeway (FAP 414)
* Time of Death - Seems to have been in the early 1980's.
* Estimated Lane Miles - Around 14 assuming four lanes
* Downgraded Form - Possible new surface arterial.
US 67 Freeway
* Time of Death - Upgrading US 67 between the Lewis Bridge and Clark Bridge appears to have been dropped in the late 1990's.
* Estimated Lane Miles - 13.96
So St. Louis area at least another 244.44 lane miles that were never built.
Link
MO 755/North-South Distributor
* Time of death: Early 1980's
* Important Contributions: Would have provided for the missing movements at the west end of the PSB, plus a bypass of the depressed section of I-70
* Estimated Lane Miles: 21.98 - Assuming eight lanes between I-44 and I-64 (two lanes from I-55 plus two lanes from I-44) and six lanes between I-64 and I-70)
* Downgraded Form: The Truman and currently unbuilt 22nd Street Parkways.
I-170 Southern Extension
* Time of death: Most recently in 1997, however had died a few times prior to that year.
* Important Contributions: Quick access from South County to Clayton, possible relief for many of the current cut through streets such as Elm Avenue in Webster Groves (though congestion on the extension could have been a problem)
* Estimated Lane Miles: 46.98 - Assuming six lanes on the 1997 railroad alternative, including the stub from I-55 to MO 267
* Downgraded Form: Likely the South County Connector/River Des Peres extension
Cole Expressway
* Time of Death - 1972 for the section from I-170 to MO 755; the section between MO 755 and I-70 seems to have died first, while the I-170 to I-270 section seems to have held on a little longer.
* Estimated Lane Miles: 56.36 if four lanes, 84.54 if six lanes
* Possible Revival: The section between Craig Road and US 67 may yet be upgraded from a signalized expressway to a freeway
Midtown or Kingshighway Freeway
* Time of Death - 1971 in the St. Louis Transportation Study by East-West Gateway
* Important Contributions - The I-70 to I-270 section would have provided easy access to MO 367 and Alton from the south
* Estimated Lane Miles: 66.2 if four lanes, 99.3 if six lanes
Illinois 3 Freeway (FAP 410)
(Only considering the PSB Complex to I-255 section here; the actual FAP 410 route was to merge with I-255 until the IL 3 interchange at Columbia, then head towards I-57 north of Marion)
* Time of Death - Seems to have been in the 1980's.
* Estimated Lane Miles: 24.96 if four lanes
US 460/IL 15 Freeway (FAP 414)
* Time of Death - Seems to have been in the early 1980's.
* Estimated Lane Miles - Around 14 assuming four lanes
* Downgraded Form - Possible new surface arterial.
US 67 Freeway
* Time of Death - Upgrading US 67 between the Lewis Bridge and Clark Bridge appears to have been dropped in the late 1990's.
* Estimated Lane Miles - 13.96
So St. Louis area at least another 244.44 lane miles that were never built.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
New lanes opening on I-55 in Jefferson County
By this time I-55 between Route M and Route Z - or just north of the bridge over the BNSF track just north of Route Z for northbound traffic - in Jefferson County should be six lanes wide.
Link to MoDOT press release
This much needed improvement is only a start; there are still 16 miles that need at least one more lane each way between Route Z and the cloverleaf with US 67.
Link to MoDOT press release
This much needed improvement is only a start; there are still 16 miles that need at least one more lane each way between Route Z and the cloverleaf with US 67.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
MoDOT to reorganize
MoDOT has recently decided to go from 10 districts to 7. Counties in District 2 (Macon), District 7 (Joplin), and District 9 (Willow Springs) will be given to neighboring districts. In addition, some of the areas covered by area engineers will be increased with some area engineers being eliminated.
http://www.modot.mo.gov/bolderfiveyeardirection/
http://www.modot.mo.gov/bolderfiveyeardirection/
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The fun begins on I-270
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